Sunday, March 28, 2010

Enjoy a delicious snack

Not much time for stocks lately. Been thinking about a few longer term, bigger picture, philosophical things but don't have time to write them down right now. In the meantime, enjoy a delicious snack of intra-day readings on the Chicken Oscillator. Hopefully that will tide you over until I have time to write something more substantive. Short term trend is up within the ongoing secular bear market.

Monday, March 1, 2010

DOW coiling under Big Bear resistance line

Please indulge me while I anthropomorphize the stock market.

A line on a chart is valuable only to the degree that price "respects" its authority. Price shows respect the same way a small time street hustler shows respect to a Mafia lieutenant - by doing what it's told and staying out of the line's face.

That means price runs away from the line when it gets too close, or it gaps over the line when it wants to get to the other side. In either case, price wants to quickly put distance between itself and the line, lest it receive a beat down. That's respect, and it makes for an orderly crime syndicate as well as orderly technical analysis.

Mind the fibs: Bearkill Edition

If you mind 'em on one side, you gotta mind 'em on the other. This is a nice breach of 38.2% line on the $COMPQ's lifetime fibonacci fan, which I blab about from time to time.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Important Facts About Short Selling, The $VIX and Mole's Cat

FACT: Short selling is what causes the market to go down. If it were not for greedy bears selling short, stocks would march forever upward in a calm, orderly fashion and we would all be rich.

FACT: Government can stop bears from tanking the market by imposing limits on short selling, like the SEC did today.

PROOF: The SEC ban on financial shorts in 2008 saved the day as demonstrated in this chart:

FACT: Anyone who sells a stock short is an inherently evil domestic terrorist.

PROOF: This is Mole's cat:

FACT: The market is driven by news and events. Since the market hates short selling, it will react favorably to the SEC's new restrictions.

PROOF: The $VIX looks like it's poised to... it's, um, about to... um.. oh sh-

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Mind the fibs

Just a quickie reminder to mind the bloody fibonacci fans. This one on $COMPQ (first mentioned in October) is drawn from the 1978 low to the 2007 high, and it's important, as it once again has marked a significant point in the wave structure.

Caw C-Caw, Caw C-Caw!

Hey, isn't it a little premature to be doing a chicken dance over yesterday's call of an immediate drop? Technically, yes, perhaps. But I'm not going to be watching the market the rest of today, so I figured I'd just post this now.

That way if we continue to drop hard in the coming days, I'll look really cool. And if not, I'll just delete this post, move on and no one will be the wiser. That's basically what the TV analysts do, right?

In all seriousness though, a sustained downtrend needs to be confirmed by intra-day Chicken Oscillator readings and a clear wave structure. We don't have enough tape yet to make that determination.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Oh, hi Mr. Backtest

Second waves end on a backtest. If this is a second wave, it will end nowish according to this set up on the STCO. A cross over means all bets are off.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

$SPX intra day count

C should be a 5 wave impulse. It may be complete already, but personally I'd like to see it push a little higher. I see this as (w) of 2, in accordance with Mole's blue scenario.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Score one for the little guys

WAMU shareholders, stickin' it to The Man. Good for them...

Thursday, January 28, 2010

I'm not a licensed social psychologist...

...but I play one on The Internets.

Remember that time I got all philosophical about channel lines and the underlying psychology of social man?

I was totally just making stuff up.

Which is why no one will be more surprised than me if this actually holds.

If you don't know what these lines are go back and read the post linked above.


Last fall I postulated that a P2 peak would coincide with a backtest on the Chicken Oscillator (see here or here).

The chart below shows a clear backtest has occurred.

Assuming continued downward pressure in the coming weeks, the next challenge will come as the C.O. approaches the 20 line which can be viewed as a support/resistance line. A break below 20 would confirm that the world is ending and we are all going to die a long-term bearish scenario, while a bounce off 20 would put us in limbo (since the white trigger line will still be just above).