Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Supersized short play

According to the wave count I laid out for MCD a few weeks ago, we should be close to completing a contracting triangle that will finish off Primary Wave B as well as a massive 2-year diamond top pattern. Primary C will then commence taking MCD down to at least $40 and in all likelihood substantially lower (T2 = $30, T3 = $10.50).

On the chart below I project MCD turning at around $58.50, which would allow (E) to be a 61.8% retracement of (D) and also fill the large overhead gap from July. But there is no reason this has to happen - it is already at the point where the minimum requirements are met, meaning Primary B could end at any time. The highest this rally can go is $60.88. Any higher means this wave count is invalidated and something else is going on.

As I've said numerous times I hate triangles and I never try to position myself early -- too many whipsaws and fakeouts. So I will be watching this one closely for a high probability short entry. Let me know if you've got ideas or recommendations on month/strikes.



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